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Mountain West Conference Tournament Preview
Mar 9th
The Favorite: It’s the New Mexico Lobos, winners of their last 14 contests and regular season champs. Led by do it all forward Darington Hobson, the West Coast’s response to Evan Turner. He’s averaging a staggering 16 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists a game. He can score from all over. He’s not alone, as Steve Alford leans on eight guys, including Hobson, to play over 12 minutes a game.
The Darkhorse: San Diego State, yet again, is fighting for one of the final at large bids in the NCAA Tournament. A team that is struggling for their season can be lethal, as Saint Mary’s proved in their beatdown of Gonzaga. The Aztecs are very balanced and playing incredibly well, considering they lost the vast majority of last year’s team.
Player to Watch: It’s almost cliche to pick the conference’s best player as the player to watch, but not enough people realize just how good Darington Hobson is. It’s incredibly rare to lead your team in the three major categories, but Hobson does that. It’s not really a surprise that in two of the Lobos three losses, Hobson had bad shooting performances. If he’s on top of his game, New Mexico could not only win the MWC, they could make a run deep into March.
Prediction: I’ll go with UNLV. The tournament is hosted at the Thomas & Mack Center, UNLV’s home floor. They did lose to New Mexico there this season, but that happening twice isn’t likely. BYU is without a top 25 win this season, suggesting they’re more of a paper tiger than their four losses imply. It should be a UNLV-New Mexico final, with Tre’Von Willis and the Rebels winning by the slimmest of margins.
WAC Conference Tournament Preview
Mar 9th
The Favorite: Utah State. The Wolfpack are 25-6 overall, 14-2 in conference play, and in position to grab an at large bid if they lose in the WAC Finals. The Aggies have won 15 straight games, including a ten point victory against Wichita State in a Bracketbuster game. Utah State handed BYU one of its four losses in December. This team could cause some damage in the NCAA Tournament. The Aggies are one of the more balanced teams you will find. Tai Wesley, Jared Quayle, and Nate Bendall all average double figure scoring.
Darkhorse: Louisiana Tech. Early on the Bulldogs were in at large consideration due to an 18-3 start to the season. Since then they’ve gone 4-6 down the stretch to finish the year in fourth in the WAC. On January 4th, the Bulldogs beat Utah State by 22 points. If the Bulldogs can find their early season mojo, and get a super human effort from Kyle Gibson (19.1 PPG) and Magnum Rolle (14.5 PPG), they might end up being a surprise auto bid winner.
Player to Watch: Adrian Oliver (San Jose State). Oliver plays on a bad team (SJST is 14-16 overall) but deserves this spot because he leads the WAC in scoring (22.5 PPG) and shoots 41.7% from three point land. It’s unlikely that the Spartans will make a run to even the semifinals of the WAC Tournament, but if they do Oliver will more than likely be the reason why. If I had to pick a guy from a more competitive team to point out, the choice is an easy one. Luke Babbitt (Nevada) is second in the WAC in scoring (21.7 PPG) and can drain threes from all over the floor (43% 3PT). The Wolfpack will likely win the WAC if Utah State doesn’t.
Prediction: Utah State is going into the WAC Tournament on fire (15 straight wins) and I don’t see anyone slowing them down. Nevada and New Mexico State are worthy opponents that could give the Wolfpack trouble, but if Utah State plays its best basketball there isn’t a team in the WAC that can beat them.
ACC Conference Tournament Preview
Mar 9th
The favorite: Duke – With the tournament in Greensboro, North Carolina, how are the Duke Blue Devils not considered the favorites? True, you can knock Duke for not having the interior game to win the national championship, but they have a big three in Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer (Dan’s player of the year), and Kyle Singler. Coach K has done an excellent job with this team and they are right in line for a number one seed if they win the conference tournament in their own backyard.
The Darkhorse: Wake Forest – Dino Gaudin’s team is my darkhorse to make some noise in this ACC Tournament. For one, they are a streaky team shooting the basketball, which will come in handy against teams like Duke, Maryland, and Virginia Tech. They lead the ACC in rebounding with future NBA pro Al-Farouq Aminu averaging fifteen points and ten rebounds per game. This will allow them to take advantage of Duke in the perimeter. I have been impressed as well by the leadership of Ishmael Smith. The senior is averaging fifteen points and six rebounds per game and has stepped up for Wake in big games, despite their home loss to UNC in the past month.
Player(s) to Watch: This conference is filled with big time stars so I went with two players who I would give the ball to late in the game. Those would be Maryland’s Grevis Vasquez and Virginia Tech’s Malcolm Delaney. These two players battled it out in Blacksburg a couple of weeks ago in a double overtime thriller that had Maryland coming out on top. Let’s start with the Maryland guard. Vasquez has been there in the big moments this year for his team, including taking over senior night against Duke and a half court buzzer beater that got negated because of a timeout against Georgia Tech. He averages nineteen points and six rebounds per game. Although his points per game does not match up to Delaney, one can not deny the heart that this player has.
As for Delaney, the Hokies senior guard is the ACC leader in scoring, averaging 21 points per game along with six assists. He has gone unnoticed for most of his career, but this is the tournament where I believe he will let his game speak for himself. He is a solid shooter and is not afraid to take it to the basket and draw the foul. Delaney and Jeff Allen give the Hokies a great chance to take the ACC Tournament.
Prediction: The ACC has been seen as a down conference by most experts this year and despite some of the individual talent in this conference, everything is going in the right direction for Duke to take home the title. They don’t just have one leader; they have three in Scheyer, Smith and Singler. Also, the ACC Tournament is in Greensboro. I think Duke gets revenge on Maryland and wins the ACC Tournament.
SEC Conference Tournament Preview
Mar 9th
The Favorite: Kentucky. John Calipari promised to turn around the Wildcats and in one year he’s taken from NIT to a likely number one seed in the NCAA Tournament. John Wall has been fantastic all year but he’s improving as the year goes on. He’s scored double figure points in his last eight games coming into the SEC Tournament. Wall isn’t Kentucky’s only weapon thought. Big man Patrick Patterson reminds me a lot of Rashard Lewis. Just so I’m clear, Patterson would get murdered in a shooting competition with Lewis, but his affect on defenses is comparable on a college to NBA type level. Patterson’s improved perimeter jump shot stretches defenses, allowing DeMarcus Cousins to work down low and giving John Wall more space to make plays off of dribble penetration. When Wall is spreading the ball around and leading fastbreak points, Kentucky is at its best. At times, Cousins seems to forget that he should be dominating the boards, but when he’s focused he’s practically impossible to box out consistently.
Darkhorse: Florida. As intriguing as picking South Carolina (due to Devan Downey), Arkansas (due to Courtney Fortson), or Georgia (because they seem to beat every good team they play) is, I’ve got to go with a team that finished in the bottom half of its own division but could still win the entire SEC Tournament. Florida has the talent to beat almost any team in the country, which was shown by close games against Kentucky and Syracuse. The Gators have five players that can take over games at different times, but none of them seem to all show up at the same time. Chandler Parsons has become the leader of the team, but Alex Tyus and Vernon Maclin’s success on the glass usually decides Florida’s fate in close games. The Gators get Auburn in round one before taking on Mississippi State in round two in what is basically being seen as a bubble play in game.
Bubble Game of the Tournament: I just mentioned it a little bit in my “darkhorse” paragraph, but Florida-Mississippi State is a potential second round matchup that could decide which teams gets into the NCAA Tournament. In the first meeting (in Starkville), the Gators won with a very impressive showing from Vernon Maclin. Jarvis Vanardo will probably play more inspired in the rematch.
Player to Watch: Devan Downey (South Carolina). It’s truly a shame that this guy will never get to play in the NCAA Tournament, barring an incredible run to win the SEC Tournament by South Carolina. Downey (22.6 PPG) is one of the best offensive players in the country. Remember, earlier this year he led the Gamecocks past Kentucky in one of the Wildcats two regular season losses. Downey and South Carolina get Alabama in round one, but if they win that one they get the Wildcats again in the quarterfinals.
Prediction: I’m taking Vanderbilt to win the SEC, even though they get the scary Georgia-Arkansas winner in the quarterfinals. Tennessee will likely play Mississippi in the quarters, a game the Rebels have to have to get an at large bid. As I’ve already said, the Florida-Mississippi State winner is probably going to get in. With a lot of toss up games, it’s only logical to take the two best teams to make the SEC finals. In the third matchup between the Commodores and Wildcats, I’ll take Vanderbilt to grab the automatic bid. Jermaine Beal (14.7 PPG), A. J. Ogilvy (13.9 PPG), and the ‘Dores might be looking at a top three seed on Selection Sunday if they get the auto bid.
Big 12 Conference Tournament Preview
Mar 9th
The Favorite: Kansas. If this said “national championship favorite”, the same team would be picked. The Jayhawks have consistently been the best team in the Big 12 all year, with only one conference loss in Stillwater against Oklahoma State. Kansas’ other loss came in Knoxville against Tennessee, against a Volunteers team that was playing for its season after losing Tyler Smith. The Jayhawks have four players that average double figure scoring, but the difference in them and every other team in the Big 12 might be the leadership of Sherron Collins. When Kansas needs a big shot, Collins seems to always get it done. When the Jayhawks need a big defensive possession, Cole Aldrich gets it done inside, and if Collins isn’t get the scoring load done freshman Xavier Henry can take over games when needed. Kansas truly has it all.
![James Anderson has become one of the best scorers in the country. [Picture: ESPN.com]](../wp-content/uploads/2010/03/jamesanderson270x147.gif "jamesanderson270x147")
Darkhorse: Texas. I can’t believe I’m writing this after the Longhorns 17-0 start to the season, but Texas might be the biggest darkhorse in the entire country. With all the talent Texas has, they’ve somehow lost eight of their final fourteen games. Damion James leads the Longhorns in scoring (17.7 PPG) and leads the conference in rebounding (10.2 RPG). Although he’s second on the team in scoring, freshman Avery Bradley hasn’t scored over eleven points in his last five games. Texas is going to need more production from him to make a run in the Big 12 Tournament and the NCAA Tournament.
Player to Watch: James Anderson (Oklahoma State). Alright, so it’s easy to pick the leading scorer in a conference when looking for a player to watch, but how many casual fans have got to watch Anderson a lot this year? Anderson (22.9 PPG) has the ability to completely take over games. He’s quickly went from just a Big 12 star to one of the best scorers in the entire country. He’s coming in on fire too: He’s scored 25 or more points in his last three games.
Prediction: Kansas is the best team in the Big 12 from top to bottom. They won the regular season conference title by five games for a reason. This will easily be one of the more interesting conference tournaments to watch. Potential second round matchups include Texas-Baylor, Kansas State-Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M-Missouri. All of those teams are going to the NCAA Tournament. Even if Kansas runs away with the Big 12 Tournament, this will be a good preview of seven of the 65 NCAA Tournament teams.
Conference USA Tournament Preview
Mar 9th
The Favorite: UTEP solidified itself as the frontrunner early on. It was UAB who held the lead initially, and teams like Tulsa and Memphis were considered stronger in the preseason, but the Miners have been stellar, winning their last fourteen. A significant reason for that is the emergence of former Louisville Cardinal Derrick Caracter. Caracter had his personal issues under Rick Pitino, but he is off to a fresh start in El Paso, becoming the dominating force he was initially projected to be. He’s joined by a solid cast, including star shooting guard Randy Culpepper, his backcourt partner Julyan Stone and NBA prospect power forward Arnett Moultrie. The Miners are deep, talented, well-coached and poised to continue their 15-1 season.
The Darkhorse: Even though Houston finished with an abominable 7-9 conference record, they do have the shoo-in for C-USA Player of the Year in Aubrey Coleman, and sweet shooting guard Kelvin Lewis to complement him. There’s not much behind those two, but anytime you have the nation’s leading scorer, you have an advantage. The Cougars are also the only team to knock off UTEP in conference play. They shot 55% from three point land in the upset.
Player to Watch: Hassan Whiteside is absolutely flying up draft boards. Just a freshman, he leads the NCAA in triple doubles, and he doesn’t do it the conventional way. Whiteside is a shot blocking stud, leading the nation with over five a game. He’s been tearing it up lately, and plays for a team that could make some noise. Marshall isn’t traditionally associated with “basketball power”, but they went 11-5 in C-USA play and lost in overtime to UTEP just a week ago. Much of their success can be attributed to the performance of Whiteside.
Prediction: It’s incredibly hard to go against a team that hasn’t lost in two months, so I won’t. Sure, seeing upsets in the conference tournaments is fun, but in this case, with a team that has won 14 in a row, it’s not smart. It won’t be easy, just as the 15 wins for Tony Barbee’s squad didn’t come easy. There were a lot of close games sprinkled in among those 15, and if they expect to snag an auto bid, they’ll have to battle through a few more. It should be noted that there is no way UTEP is missing the Big Dance. If they don’t get the auto bid, that potentially takes one away from a major conference team.
Pac 10 Conference Tournament Preview
Mar 9th
The Favorite: California. Despite starting the year with high expectations, California had to overcome a rough start to win the Pac 10 regular season title. After a 14-8 start to the season that left the Golden Bears in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament, California has won eight of its last nine games to end the regular season. It’s hard to believe but California’s best win might have come in its season opener against Murray State. Losses to Syracuse, Ohio State, New Mexico, and Kansas have shown that California is not likely to knock off a high seed in the Big Dance (all those teams are going to likely be three seeds or higher), but the experience might be enough to help them pull off an upset or two if they get into the field.
Darkhorse: Arizona. I’m never going to count Arizona out, especially after they ruined my potential perfect bracketology field last year. The Wildcats streak of 25 consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances is in jeopardy, but they have quietly put themselves into position to make a run in the Pac 10 Tournament. As the #4 seed they play UCLA in round one in a battle of disappointing national powers, before a potential battle with California in round two. Last year the Wildcats snuck into the field and used favorable matchups to make the Sweet 16. Derrick Williams (15.7 PPG) and Nic Wise (14.4 PPG) are hoping to shock the world and take the Wildcats back to the NCAA Tournament again.
Bubble Game of the Tournament: This is the first of our conference previews to have this, but I felt it was necessary. Washington and Arizona State are likely going to meet in round two (if both win their first round games) and meet in a winner take all showdown. Hopefully an upset in round one (Washington plays Oregon State, Arizona State plays Stanford) won’t prevent this battle to fairly decide one of the final at large spots for the NCAA Tournament.
Player to Watch: Landry Fields (Stanford). If the matchup I discussed in my “bubble game of the tournament” is going to be derailed, Fields will probably be the reason why. He leads the conference in scoring (22.2 PPG) and shoots a very high percentage from the field (49.1% FG). He’s one of the better players in the country, but he’s not known nationally because he plays on a Cardinal that has been awful this year.
Prediction: As much as I hate picking another favorite, I can’t help but pick California. The Bears seem to be on a mission to show that in a down year for the Pac 10 as a whole, they can still make a run in the NCAA Tournament as a strong contender to make the Elite Eight. Washington and Arizona State have a lot to play for and their potential semifinal game will probably be for one of the 34 at large spots in the NCAA Tournament. Even though the Huskies and Sun Devils have everything to play for, California doesn’t feel as if it is locked into the NCAA Tournament just yet. Jerome Randle might be the key for the Bears chances at winning the Pac 10. After eight straight double figure games, Randle has been held to single digits in two of the Bears last five games. He is going to have to score a lot to lead California to the Pac 10 tournament title.
Southland Conference Tournament Preview
Mar 9th
The Favorite: Sam Houston State – The Bearkats won the regular season title with a 22-7 record and a 14-2 record in the Southland Conference. They share the basketball well and put the ball in the basket as they lead the conference in points per game and assists per game. One of their best players is Gilberto Clavell. The junior forward averaged seventeen points and six rebounds per game, which makes him a dominant force in terms of the interior game.
The Darkhorse: Stephen F. Austin – The Lumberjacks won the Southland conference tournament a year ago and I would not be surprised if they won it again this year. Usually, a second place finish in the regular season does not qualify for a darkhorse label, but they have flown under the radar by a lot of experts. They have two players in Eddie Williams and Jereal Scott who average thirteen points a game. If there is a downside to the Lumberjacks, it’s that they are tenth in the conference in points per game. That will make it difficult for them to repeat.
Player to Watch: Kevin Palmer (Texas A&M Corpus Christ) – The senior guard is averaging near twenty points a game this season for a team that finished fourth in the conference during the regular season. With his senior leadership and the Islanders’ past success in the Southland, do not be surprised if they make a run to the Big Dance.
Prediction: There are four teams in this conference that had ten or more wins in the regular season during conference play, so this bid is up for grabs. However, I like Sam Houston State to defeat Stephen F. Austin in the final because the Bearkats know how to put the ball in the basket better than anybody in the conference.
Big West Conference Tournament Preview
Mar 9th
The Favorite: UC Santa Barbara. At 12-4 in conference, the Gaunchos finished the year tied with Pacifica for the Big West regular season title. UC Santa Barbara swept Pacific in the regular season. The last battle (on February 4) between the conference powers resulting in a 13-point victory for the Gaunchos at home.
Darkhorse: Cal State Fullerton. The Titans are known for their baseball team, but they are starting to become a factor year in and year out in the Big West. Earlier this year I watched as Cal State Fullerton went to UCLA and knocked off the Bruins. That win doesn’t look as impressive after the way UCLA has played this year, but it’s still not often that a team like Cal State Fullerton goes into Pauley Pavilion and wins a game. Cal State Fullerton finished third in the conference standings this year and is overlooked because they finished four games out of first.
Player to Watch: Orlando Johnson (UC-Santa Barbara). Johnson leads the Big West in scoring (18.0 PPG) and shoots a high percentage from the three point line (39.6%). Johnson could be the difference in a close game against Pacific in the Big West final.
Prediction: Pacific will win the Big West conference tournament. The third Gonzaga-St. Mary’s meeting (in the WCC Final) showed how tough it is to beat a team three times a year. Expect a third showdown between Pacific and UC Sanata Barbara, with the Tigers winning the auto bid to get into the NCAA Tournament.
SWAC Conference Tournament Preview
Mar 9th
The Favorite: Jackson State. The Tigers went 17-1 in SWAC conference play, winning the regular season crown by three games. After an 0-10 start to the season where Jackson State played really good teams (Baylor, Tulsa, Nebraska, Alabama, Memphis), the Tigers have won 19 of their final 20 games to end the season.
Darkhorse: Texas Southern. Jackson State’s one conference loss came at home to the other Tigers of the SWAC on January 18th. Texas Southern finished the year 15-15 overall and 11-7 in conference play. They ended the year with three consecutive wins over Alabama A&M, Alcorn State, and Southern.
Player to Watch: Garrison Johnson (Jackson State). Johnson is leading the SWAC in scoring (17.3 PPG) and has scored 20 or more points in nine of Jackson State’s last twelve games. He hasn’t had a game where he took single digit shot attempts since December 23rd.
Prediction: I can’t pick against a team that finished 17-1 in conference play and won its conference by three games. Jackson State hasn’t exactly rolled through its wins (eight of its last ten wins have been by ten points or less), but it has shown all year that it is the best team in the SWAC. Arkansas Pine Bluff and Alabama State are worthy challengers that could steal the auto bid and a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
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