Kobe Bryant is too old. Pau Gasol is not aggressive enough. The Celtics are the more physical team and are going to dish out punishment to the Lakers just like they did two years ago.
Those three statements were the main reason many experts picked Boston to win its second NBA Finals in three years.
Wrong, wrong, wrong.
Game one of the NBA Finals saw the Lakers and Celtics flip roles as Los Angeles became the physical, dominant team that looked as if it could taste a NBA championship within its grasp. Gasol outrebounded Kevin Garnett 14 to 4 and made those who doubted his toughness coming in look foolish. Garnett, always a pure jump shooter, appeared to be playing as if his limbs would break off if they were touched by a Los Angeles defender. Instead of attacking the paint he stood on offense as a spectator and took open jump shots when given the ball.
Bryant once again showed why he is the best player in the NBA. Sorry, Lebron. Kobe made a statement early by waltzing into the lane and saw something he didn’t see two years ago against the Celtics: space. There wasn’t a defender in the middle ready to lay a blow to the 31 year old Bryant to send him crashing to the floor. Boston played soft, a word that has never been associated with the Celtics during the “Big Three” era.
At times the Celtics offense was stagnant. Rajon Rondo was unable to make plays in the second half to keep the Celtics in the game and Boston quickly fell behind twenty points after three quarters. Paul Pierce made a few plays, but overall the entire Boston offense appeared stalemated by a Lakers defense that has been underrated all year long.
Ron Artest was able to sang loose balls to help Los Angeles pick up some easy points in transition. His presence, along with a somewhat effective Andrew Bynum, were expected to be the differences in this series if the Lakers were to beat the Celtics in this finals rematch. So far, that thinking appears right on.
For Boston, the goal is still the same going into game one: Win one of the first two in Los Angeles. The Celtics were disappointed with their effort that saw them get out-rebounded, out-hustled, and beat up, but that only makes them scarier. The Celtics know that if they play that way for the rest of this series, this will be a very short NBA Finals.
There’s no doubt about which team was more physical in game one. Now the question is whether Boston will man up or get beat up again by the Lakers big men again in game two.
Our two experts disagree on which team will win the NBA Finals. They went back and forth giving reasons why the team they picked will win the series. Daniel Evans picks the Lakers while Blake Hofstad is taking the Celtics.
Our experts salivate over Kobe potentially guarding Rondo defensively.
Who will win the NBA Finals and why? Make your argument.
Daniel Evans: Lakers in six. It’s almost too easy to predict that this series will go seven games due to its star potential, so I will go six. When this series gets to crunch time, Kobe Bryant will take over and make the type of plays that separate him from every other player in the league. Two years ago the Celtics whipped the Lakers in every facet of the game and frustrated Bryant more than I’ve seen anyone else frustrate him. Although he won’t say it, this is about redemption for Kobe and the Lakers. Pau Gasol is more in-tune with the Triangle Offense with 2.5 years of experience in Phil Jackson’s offense under his belt. This Los Angeles team is more equipped to win a championship than it was two years ago, which is why they were able to complete the deal last season. I expect the Lakers to win one of the two opening games at home, two of the three in Boston (against a Celtics team that is not great at home), and game six at home.
Blake Hofstad: Celtics in six. Like Dan, I think it’s really tough for a series in the 2-3-2 format to go seven games. However, while I appreciate Kobe’s takeover ability, I fail to see how he’ll have any more success against a Boston D that stymied him two years ago. Even so, Kobe will have his good games. However, I don’t know where the other scoring is going to come from. Lamar Odom shows up a few plays a game, and if his ability to get into the paint is limited, he often gets frustrated and starts launching jumpers. Pau Gasol, in my opinion, is one of the most overrated players in the NBA. So many of his points come from simple pick and rolls and easy offensive rebounds and putbacks it’s ridiculous. Kevin Garnett, Rasheed Wallace and Kendrick Perkins are all quality defenders who can frustrate Pau. I’m starting to wonder if Andrew Bynum will ever be fully healthy, and Ron Artest is too sporadic to count on for six or seven solid games. On the Boston side of things, Rajon Rondo should have his way with Derek Fisher. Paul Pierce has been scoring at an economical rate as of late, and Kevin Garnett, despite lacking the explosiveness of Amare Stoudemire, has such a solid mid-range game that he can open the lanes for Pierce, Rondo and Ray Allen to exploit.
DE: Blake, I think Bryant might play Rondo a lot defensively in this series. While Ron Artest’s addition didn’t help offensively, he will be able to play Paul Pierce one on one. Two years ago the Lakers didn’t have a player that it could rely on to slow down Pierce, outside of Kobe. I agree that Derek Fisher has lost a step or two, especially defensively, but if he starts getting beat on defense expect Bryant to take over and play Rondo. Rondo is the one player on the floor for the Celtics that has an advantage over his Los Angeles adversary. Where is Boston going to score on Los Angeles? Garnett will be able to score on Gasol at times, but Pierce is going to struggle to find open shots against Artest. I might score more than Perkins does in the series and Rasheed Wallace is as consistent as Artest on offense. I think we agree that this series will come down to defense, but only one player in this series can take over a game: Kobe Bryant. Pierce has his moments offensively, but I don’t think the Lakers are too worried about him with Artest on the roster this time around. That’s why I expect the Lakers to win–Bryant’s ability to take over the entire series and turn it on its head.
BH: There’s one player you forgot to mention above, and that’s Ray Allen. If Kobe is on Rondo and Artest is on Pierce, that leaves Derek Fisher to guard Ray Allen, who runs around screens and sets himself up for shots better than anyone in the league, and gets into the lane much easier and more often than he’s given credit for. Allen is capable of scoring 30 every single game. Even if Kobe does guard Rondo, I’ve never thought Kobe thrived in one on one situations defensively. Rondo has been magnificent these playoffs. He’s a maestro with the ball in his hands, and I don’t think anyone on earth can keep him from getting into the lane whenever he wants. Pierce is a unique player, it’s hard to compare him to anyone because his playing style is so unorthodox. I find it hard to believe that Boston’s big play guy will be shut down by Artest. Artest is undoubtedly LA’s best defender and still among the league’s best, but Pierce is a big guy who gets physical to score. Artest will win some, Pierce will win some.
DE: Artest will slow down Pierce, not shut him down. Allen is a great offensive player, but he’s lost a step just like Fisher. If the two do end up guarding each other, it will be a physical matchup because that’s how Fisher plays the game–physical. One thing I forgot to mention above is that it is very likely that Perkins will be suspended a game in this series. He’s already at six technical fouls and is probably going to pick another in this series based on his current pace, meaning he would miss the next game. Losing him for a game won’t be monumental, but he is another body to play defensively against Gasol, Bynum, and Odom inside. Los Angeles already has an advantage inside when Bynum is healthy enough to make a difference, so Perkins better be careful. Matchups like Kobe vs. Rondo are what will make this series great. Bryant is an excellent defender that isn’t given enough credit on defensive despite being named to the All-NBA Defensive Team every year. If this NBA Finals is Bryant’s stage to show the world he’s not over the hill just yet, his best play may come on the defensive end.
BH: I think Artest can slow down Pierce, but there are stretches, especially at the Garden, where #34 just starts feeling it. I give the slight advantage to Pierce, simply because he’s been picking up his game lately, and I think Artest may be called upon to guard Allen at times as well, Fisher simply won’t be able to stop him and Artest battles through screens as well as any defender of this era, and as I mentioned above, Allen runs around a bunch of screens. However, that would leave Fisher to guard Rondo, and as Rondo has shown, he doesn’t have much trouble dicing up defenders. I wouldn’t go so far as to call Fisher physical, but he’s scrappy. I strongly disagree with the sentiment that Kobe is an overlooked defender. You said it yourself, he’s consistently named to All-Defensive teams. He made the First Team again this year, despite not even being the best defender on his own team, that’s still Artest. The All Defensive teams are jokes, deserving players are consistently left off in favor of bigger names. I just don’t see the on ball defensive prowess from Kobe that’s going to be necessary to shut down Rondo, and KG shoots well enough to free up the post.
DE: Kobe is an overlooked defender, but that is an argument we can have any time. You are completely right about Pierce having moments at the Garden that are just impossible to prevent. That is going to happen with any NBA star at home. It will be interesting to see how the two teams decide to match up on defense. We’ve went over a lot of the Lakers defensive matchups, but who is going to slow down Bryant for Boston? Pierce? Rondo is a terrific defender but he may not be able to do much with Derek Fisher, because he is more of a jump shooter than the traditional slasher like most NBA point guards. Like the Phoenix series, Artest will probably be left wide open. If he can consistently knock down jump shots, the Lakers will win this series. I think you would even agree with that. Although you don’t consider Gasol an elite player like I do, you have to credit him for his offensive ability. Garnett will likely play him defensively, leaving Perkins on Bynum.
BH: I can hardly see Rondo struggling with an over the hill Derek Fisher who makes getting into the painted area look painful. In fact, Fisher’s inability to penetrate may allow Rondo to see time defending Bryant. If anyone in the NBA can slow down Kobe while he’s on his current tear, it’s Rondo, who I think is the consensus best defender at either guard position in the league. Kobe will have his games like he has been having, dropping 35 on 24 shots, but then he’ll have his games where he takes 31 shots and scores 27, because there’s a difference between a zone defense and Rajon Rondo. I don’t know why Artest would be left wide open, although his shot selection is criticized he’s still capable of making threes at an above average clip, and that won’t be overlooked by Doc Rivers. Pierce will make him work on the defensive end, which may limit his impact offensively, especially later in the series. Garnett is still one of the best low post defenders in the game even in the waning years of his career, and I fail to see Pau having his way with KG in a one on one scenarios. Bynum, if healthy, can give LA 8 points and 8 rebounds a game, but little else, and a fully healthy Andrew Bynum is a sight the world may never see.
As game six of the Western Conference Finals wound down with Kobe Bryant spreading his arms and making the motion of gliding into the NBA Finals like an eagle, my mind instantly flash-backed to the 2008 NBA Finals. It was two years ago that Bryant walked off the court in Boston without a championship ring while the Celtics “Big Three” celebrated a well deserved first championship behind him.
In the 2008 NBA Finals, Kobe Bryant and the Lakers fell to Boston in six games. This year the two teams meet again in the finals.
It is not often that we get to see a great matchup for a second time. This year is one of those rare years when no matter what happens, we get a NBA Finals that is going to be remembered for a long time. For the last week, it has been clear who the NBA’s best teams were, but we had to wait for the Celtics and Lakers to finish off their series before we could truly look ahead. Boston, now healthy, dispatched of Lebron James and the Cavaliers before shaking Orlando in the Eastern Conference finals. Los Angeles was pushed to a pair of sixth games by the Thunder and the Suns, but marched into the finals behind the spectacular play of Bryant.
Thankfully, the wait is now over.
This matchup is too good not to salivate over, because the storylines are endless.
Bryant, now a grizzled veteran, is making his eighth trip to the NBA Finals in only 14 years in the NBA. Put those numbers in your head for a minute and spin them around. Kobe Bryant has played in the NBA Finals during more seasons than he hasn’t. How many others players can say that in the history of the league? Experts are finally realizing that in a league centered around Dwight Howard and Lebron James in the prime of their careers, Bryant is still the best player in the NBA. For him and his teammates, this is about redemption. Los Angeles feels like if it hadn’t blown a 24 point lead in game four of the 2008 NBA Finals against the Celtics, it could be playing for its second three-peat in a ten year span.
Boston is just trying to avoid the proverbial wheelchairs and walkers everyone keeps trying to describe them with. Critics and so-called experts have claimed all year that the Celtics were too old to compete for another championship. The Boston roster from two years ago probably was too old. At that time, an inexperienced Rajon Rondo tried to stay out of Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett’s way. Now, his emergence,as a player that brings back memories of Magic Johnson (much to the chagrin of older generation Lakers fans), has turned Boston into a team nearly impossible to guard. The saying “growing up before our eyes” is overused as a sports analogy, but in this case it’s the only way to describe Rondo’s change from role player in the shadow of three veterans to the unquestioned floor leader in Boston.
So, if these are the same two teams, won’t the result be the same as the one from two years ago? Maybe, maybe not. Along with Rondo’s coming out party, there are quite a few changes on both sides since then.
Pau Gasol has become an even better offensive weapon than he was in the first NBA Finals meeting between these two squads. At that time, Gasol was still trying to get completely adjusted to the Triangle Offense after a midseason trade sent him from Memphis to LA, but now he’s completely in-tune with of one of the games’ best scorers. The emergence of his jump shot has helped space the floor for the Lakers, giving the Los Angeles guards more room to drive. Derek Fisher, one of the those aforementioned guards, continues to make all the big shots that Bryant doesn’t make.
For Boston, the playoffs might be about the emergence of a young star point guard in Rondo, but the team still relies on Pierce, Allen, and Garnett. All three are still playing at extremely high levels. Every time the Celtics gets into trouble, one of them makes a big play. Two years ago their run to the playoffs took Boston from bottom dweller to the best team in the NBA. That run was all about the light at the end of the tunnel for three veterans that had tried to win a title by themselves for years on teams without enough pieces around them to make it happen. This time it appears the hunger is just as strong. After all, due to the injury that kept Garnett out of last season’s playoffs, the Celtics starting five has never lost a playoff series.
Even the role players on both teams, like Ron Artest and Rasheed Wallace, breathe life into this series. Artest was brought in for his defensive prowess in the playoffs, while Wallace was a versatile forward added by the Celtics to counter Orlando’s Rashard Lewis. Artest, a player whose career has been one gigantic question mark after another, now finds himself on basketball’s biggest stage. He will likely be asked to guard Paul Pierce, a task nobody on the Lakers could handle two years ago. When Wallace plays well, he can still light up the scoreboard on offense and his jump shot is still pure when its on.
There’s one other big difference that must be pointed out. Remember that in 2008 Boston had homecourt advantage. This year, Los Angeles has homecourt advantage. That could be a good thing or a bad thing. The Celtics are actually statistically better on the road than at home and the NBA Finals unique 2-3-2 championship format puts all the pressure on the team with homecourt advantage in games one and two. If Los Angeles loses one of the first two games, it may not see its home court again before the series ends.
The memories of Larry Bird and Magic Johnson’s classic battles flash through my head as I write about this series. How can they not? Bird is Boston. MagicisLos Angeles. Those two make this rivalry what it is. Both will likely be on hand for every game in this series as well, although Magic will be working the series for ESPN. Someone should make them have to sit together that way we can watch their reactions throughout the series. When Kobe makes a big shot, I want to see Bird screaming and Magic laughing. When Kevin Garnett is celebrating a great defensive play, I want to see Magic’s face and see Bird talk smack.
This series features the NBA’s two most prestigious franchises; the teams with the most championship rings and NBA Finals appearances. This is one of the few times when the last two two NBA champions have faced off in a NBA Finals. Soak it all in folks. We get one of the best players in the history of the league (Kobe) against one of the most veteran teams in league history. We get the NBA’s best rivalry. We get Bryant chasing his fifth title (which would put him one behind Jordan in the “greatest of all-time debate”) and Lakers head coach Phil Jackson chasing his eleventh. To quote a saying I’ve heard my entire life, this feels like getting your cake and eating it too.
All this leaves me with one statement: It cannot get any better than this. Magic-Bird. Kobe. Pierce. Rondo. Allen. Garnett. Gasol. Phil Jackson. Lakers-Celtics. This is the NBA’s version of Heaven without a Michael Jordan game winner.
Our three writers agree on the first five picks in their 2010 NBA Mock Drafts. John Wall is the N0. 1 pick to the Wizards, followed by Evan Turner to the 76ers, Derrick Favors to the Nets, Wes Johnson to the Timberwolves, and DeMarcus Cousins to the Kings.
How high will Butler’s Gordon Hayward go? Blake Hofstad has him going No. 9 overall to the Utah Jazz, while Daniel Evans and Ricky Keeler have him going at numbers 12 and 13. Hayward is one of the draft’s biggest question marks, along with Nevada’s Luke Babbitt. Babbitt is No. 13 on Evans mock draft and falls in the top fifteen of all three mocks.
How many teams in the NBA can comfortably play ten players in a game, 82 games a year plus playoffs? How many of those can give each of those players at least 15 minutes of playing time? At this point, it’s pretty safe to say the only coach who in the league who can boast such a roster is Alvin Gentry. The superb Phoenix second unit, which is essentially a second starting five, propelled the Suns to a Game Four victory, and evened the series at two games a piece heading back to Los Angeles.
The quintet of Channing Frye, Louis Amundson, Goran Dragic, Jared Dudley and Leandro Barbosa pumped in 54 points in an economical 32 attempts, hauled in 23 boards, dished out 13 assists and didn’t have a player go worse than +12. The Lakers bench, which, excuse me Luke Walton, only goes three deep, was unable to keep pace. Despite a valiant effort from Kobe Bryant, it is very, very hard to win when the opposing team’s second five performs better than your starting five, with the exception of Kobe.
Not only did the bench shine, but the Suns won despite not having anyone break 21 points. They won Game Three after Amare Stoudemire exploded for 42, but Gentry has to be happier with his team’s performance after Game Four. Although Steve Nash and Robin Lopez weren’t on the money from the field, not a single player had a truly bad game. Frye, who was 1-20 for the series coming in, connected on four of his eight shot attempts, all three pointers. His play was crucial in netting a Phoenix victory.
Coach Gentry didn’t feel the need to put his starters back in when the fourth quarter started, a somewhat unconvential move. “When they are going good, I don’t think I should have to take them out,” said Gentry, and that decision paid off, as the Suns outscored the Lakers by eight in the final period.
Undoubtedly, people will begin to question Los Angeles. After dropping two in a row, it appears Phoenix has the momentum heading back to LA. Plus, with the balance the team displayed in Game Four and Frye’s shooting doldrums apparently over, the time for an upset is ripe. However, don’t forget about the Oklahoma City series, a series where Kobe Bryant struggled mightily. Now he’s on top of his game, and is playing his best basketball of the year. Whoever wins the next three games, the series certainly became a lot more interesting after it’s stint in Phoenix.
Once the buzzer sounded last night at the Boston Garden, the focus was not shifted on the Boston Celtics’ series win over the top team in the east in the regular season, but to what happened to the Cleveland Cavaliers. For the second straight year, Lebron James’ team had the best record in the Eastern Conference and failed to even make the NBA Finals. So, who gets the most blame on the blame pie for the Cavaliers? I think it is Lebron James, but he should not get all of the blame in this instance.
For the last two games, I have seen more of a disinterested Lebron James and frankly I am a huge King James fan. But, this was a guy who did not have the same killer instinct at times and who critics have not seen throughout his entire career. Where was the King James who went on a tear in the late stages of Game 5 against the Detroit Pistons in the Eastern Conference Finals a few years ago? Against the Celtics, he was a player who settled for the outside shot instead of going to the basket. Other than the two threes he had in the fourth quarter of Game 6, James was well off the mark on most of his perimeter shooting and did not look confident with the ball in his hands. I never thought I would see the best athlete in the NBA look rattled in a pressure situation. Let’s give him his credit: He did have a triple-double last night, but nearly had a quadruple-double with nine turnovers. However, as I mentioned, some blame has to fall to other places.
Let’s put some blame on Mike Brown and Cavs management.Brown is the head coach of a team that could not get the best team in the regular season over the hump. Brown has been getting no praise and all blame at times, but he got outcoached by Doc Rivers in this series in terms of the rotation of his bench. Clearly, Shaquille O’Neal was not happy with his role in this series, even though Cleveland management knew that the main reason they brought the Big Diesel in was to beat the Orlando Magic. Shaq played more minutes as if to say we are preparing you for the Magic instead of trying to win this series. Brown has to leave Cleveland because he is losing the respect of the locker room and GM Danny Ferry has to realize that this is not the guy to get them back to the NBA Finals. If Brown had the respect of his players– think about it– would the Cavaliers have quit with 1:30 left in the game last night only down by nine?
As for Ferry, I have to blame him again for not getting another star to pair with number 23. They had a chance to trade for Amare Stoudemire and instead took Antwan Jamison. Jamison is a good player in his own right, but he is not a star and did not show up last night or in this series for that matter. The former Washington Wizard had just five points and was flat out dominated by Kevin Garnett. Mo Williams had 20 points in the first half, but other than a slam dunk in Game one that changed that game from being another choke job at home, Williams has not showed up in big series for Cleveland over the last few years. So, although I put 75 percent of the blame on Lebron, but I have to put the final twenty-five percent on Mike Brown and the Cavs’ front office.
Now, to address the one million dollar question, where will Lebron James play next season? For one, I do not think he will return to Cleveland. The reason I believe this is because, so far, Lebron has shown no signs of staying with a team that has failed to get that one superstar to pair up with him. Last night gave him a chance to silence the doubters and give an apology to Cavs fans saying I am coming back because I owe this team a NBA Championship and he did not do that. He said last night that he will discuss it with his management team.
Personally, I think James will be in the bright lights of New York City next year, playing for the New York Knicks. Donnie Walsh will throw a max contract on him, but James has high regard for head coach Mike D’Antoni from his days with team USA. New York has a strong young nucleus in place with David Lee and Danilo Gallinari, who has a solid perimeter game, particularly his three point shooting. In order for Lebron to go to New York City, the Knicks will need to get one or two more superstars to go with Lee, Gallinari, Toney Douglas, or Wilson Chandler. New York has enough room on the salary cap for two max free agents and according to the New York Daily news, Spurs point guard Tony Parker could be on the horizon. Also, if David Lee leaves for more money, New York can also look to sign Chris Bosh, and if you tell him that on his Twitter page, he might actually go to the Garden. I don’t think Miami will sign both Wade and Lebron, and Chicago will be a nightmare for him in terms of being compared to Michael Jordan. The Nets are an intriguing name, but they are not moving to Brooklyn until at least three years from now and does the thought of playing in Newark intrigue Lebron?
We have 46 days till July 1st, when the NBA Free agency Period begins, so let the debate begin.
Michael Jordan: Six championships. Kobe Bryant: four championships. Lebron James? Well, I guess he does have two MVP awards. It’s clear one of these guys doesn’t belong in the same discussion with the other two.
It’s time we stopped anointing a 25 year old kid as the greatest basketball player that has ever walked the Earth. I’m flat out sick of hearing it. Lebron James is so big that he has his own offseason named after him–the Summer of Lebron. NBA teams have been practically giving away big name contracts for nothing so that they have a chance to sign James this summer. A chance!
I see a lot of what everyone else sees when they watch James play. He’s so athletic, maybe the most athletic man ever to suit up in a basketball uniform. He’s a great passer, especially for a forward, and a tremendous rebounder. The one thing I see that everyone else doesn’t is that he is not a great jumpshooter. There, I said it. I realize most superstars earn a lot of their points by going to the basket aggressively and making free throws, but all of the great ones can also create their own offense while away from the basket.
Lebron James cannot do that on a consistent basis. A lot of people will tell you that the Celtics defense should get the credit for James awful shooting performance in games 5 and 6, but James was not as aggressive as he should have been. He passed up open shots and opportunities to drive to the basket. I’ve taken the time to add up James jump shot totals from the series, which count as shots from outside the paint. He went 19 of 59 (32%) and 5 of 19 (26%) in the fourth quarter.
I don’t care how you spin it, that is pitiful. Many will tell you that Kobe Bryant didn’t shoot much better in the Lakers first round series against the Thunder and he didn’t, but at least Bryant is still playing. Just like the Celtics, Bryant is suppose to be too old to win another title. It’s a shame that still in the second half of the prime of his career, Bryant is still the best player in the league and nobody realizes it.
In the last two games of the series against the Celtics, James was 3 of 19 (16%) on jumpers. If the point of baseball is to hit the ball and touch ‘em all (in the words of John Fogerty), isn’t the skill of basketball the ability to consistently shoot the ball through the hoop? Does James have that skill?
He might be the best player in history at getting to the rim and creating highlights once he gets there, but can athleticism alone take a player to a NBA title? Is signing him worth finding out?
Next year we could see a team with Dwayne Wade and Lebron James or James and Chris Bosh. The Knicks, Nets, Clippers, Bulls, and Cavaliers would do anything to sign him.
But is James the next Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant? Not even close. Although he’s a tremendous player that can earn his spot among the NBA’s all-time greats by winning a couple of championship rings, he doesn’t seem to have Jordan and Bryant’s drive. In game five, he showed me that he may not have the desire to push through in tough playoff situations. Maybe I’m wrong. It’s hard to say this about a guy that could theoretically win the next ten NBA titles, but I’m not sure if James has what it takes to consistently win tight playoff games. In other words, I’m not sure if he can will a team to a championship. He might need another superstar to share the pressure with him and make some jump shots in clutch moments.
When Michael Jordan needed a big shot against the Jazz, he hit a huge jumpshot from the middle of the lane. When Kobe Bryant needs a clutch shot, he goes to the turnaround jumper. When Lebron James needs a last second shot, he might need to find a teammate to pass to. Maybe he will find one this summer.
The NBA Playoffs are full of storylines. Orlando’s sweep. LA’s woes. Joakim’s mouth. But what do these things actually mean moving forward, and how will they impact the rest of the season?
On Monday night, the Orlando Magic completed a sweep of Charlotte, knocking off the Bobcats 99-90 on the road. Charlotte is not an easy place to play, but Orlando got it done despite the limited play of Dwight Howard. That’s nothing new for the Magic. Howard has failed to play over 30 minutes in four playoff games, and has racked up 22 fouls. Stan Van Gundy has to assume that Howard won’t continue to play so poorly against Milwaukee or Atlanta in round two. Defensively, Howard is stout as ever, but he can’t continue to average nine points if Orlando is to win the NBA Finals.
With Howard riding the pine for much of the series, Jameer Nelson has taken over. Nelson averaged about 24 points a game against Charlotte. Vince Carter is aggressively pursuing his shot and looks like he actually wants to win, something that has been lacking throughout his career.
Even though Orlando didn’t really dominate in any game this series, they look like they’re in great shape. A sweep without breaking 100 with your best player struggling to get going offensively. Howard is only going to improve, and having him on the court for 35-40 minutes a game will make the defense that much stronger.
Los Angeles, one of the NBA’s most prolific offenses, can’t seem to score against Oklahoma City, not a team that immediately comes to mind when talking great defense. The Thunder aren’t bad on the defensive end, but they shouldn’t be providing too much resistance for the Lakers. That’s just not the case. The Lakers look, well, old would be the right word. Their roster is riddled with players in their 30’s. At 29, Nick Collison, the third or fourth guy off the bench for Scott Brooks, is the only player who sees minutes even close to that number.
If experience ever looked like a negative, it would be in this series. Los Angeles is a roster full of guys whose best days are behind them. Ron Artest isn’t the defender he once was, Lamar Odom isn’t the NBA’s best sixth man, Derek Fisher can’t shoot as well and even Kobe has not looked like himself in this series. The team is shooting an atrocious percentage from the field, three point line and charity stripe. When you simply can not score against an average to good defensive team, what happens against a Boston, Cleveland or Orlando? We may never know, because unless something clicks and LA finds some fire, they won’t even knock off OKC.
Joakim Noah was trying to fire up his teammates when he made his comments about the city of Cleveland. What he didn’t understand was that putting down your opponent’s city is probably going to upset them more than it will fire up Chicago. Many of the guys who have played most or all of their careers in a Cavalier uniform took the diss personally. Noah’s tactics are fine, and he’s been criticized way too much for being honest about his feelings, and doing it in the name of rivalry. But Cleveland is playing with a chip on their shoulder now, as if they have something to prove. The NBA’s best team shouldn’t have to prove anything, but are most dangerous when they feel they do. Noah may have provided the spark to LeBron’s first ring.
Has it gotten to the point where it would be foolish not to expect San Antonio playing into May and June? The Spurs have a good mix of grizzled vets and younger newcomers. Tim Duncan looks like he could play until he’s 50. The 34 year old just continues to elevate his game, and despite an awful game on Sunday, his teammates picked up the slack. George Hill looks better every game, and San Antonio really looks like they could go to the Western Conference Finals-and potentially beyond, even when most had written them off.
Lebron James: Kevin, have you seen my two NBA championship rings?
Kevin Durant: No, Lebron. Why don’t you check your championship ring display case?
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Maybe paraphrasing a popular commercial between the talking puppets of Lebron James and Kobe Bryant is the best way to look into the NBA’s future. With Bryant aging (31), the NBA is starting to balance itself out a little bit. Bryant’s Lakers won the last NBA title and are among the favorites to win this season’s. Los Angeles has become a consistent team with Kobe at the helm, because he wills them to wins and plays them in position to win championships.
As sad as it is for a sports fan like me to write, Bryant’s prime will be over soon. The same goes for Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan, Steve Nash, Chauncey Billups, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and many others. These guys have been in the league for a long time and will all be retired before we know it.
That leaves the NBA in the hands of its next generation of stars.
Every single day it seems like I hear “Lebron James is still young. That guy is going to win as many championships as he wants.” If you want, swap out James with Dwight Howard. Or Kevin Durant. Or Camelo Anthony. The statement still makes sense with any of them included. We’ve heard that statement mentioned regarding all these players at one point.
The truth is there are only so many titles to go around. Doing the math, let’s call 33 the age where skills start to deteriorate enough that players have to make significant adjustments to their game. That gives Kobe Bryant two more years. He might still be playing at a high level when he’s 40, because he’s Kobe, but at some point he has to start declining. Throw in that factor and think about Bryant’s Lakers, Boston’s “Big Three”, and the Spurs/Mavericks/Suns (and every other NBA star for that matters) for the next two seasons and all of a sudden the window for the young guys mentioned above to win a title starts to look smaller. Star players do not decline overnight and the NBA has too many stars for this to be a one man show for years to come.
Lebron James probably has a decade of great basketball left in him. Can he win multiple titles in an era that will also include Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony, and Kevin Durant? All of those guys are young players that would be snatched up in the first five picks of a draft if they were thrown back into a pool with every other NBA player.
How many titles will all those guys win? It’s truly tough to judge. If I give Lebron James four titles, then how many are left for the other three guys? And what about for other guys not even mentioned yet like Chris Bosh (26 years old), Dwayne Wade (28 years old), Amare Stoudemire (27 years old), Brandon Roy (25 years old), and Deron Williams (25 years old)? Out of that group, somebody is likely to win a championship (or in Wade’s case, another title).
So, how does it stack up? That’s what I’m here for, to wildly look into a crystal ball and tell you how many championships players will have when their careers end.
Here’s my best guess at how many titles Lebron James, Dwight Howard, Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, and Dwayne Wade–five of the game’s best players under 30, will win:
LEBRON JAMES
RING PREDICTION
At 25, Lebron James has a lot of basketball left in him. He’s let a few chances for a title slide by (07 vs. Spurs, last season) but he has plenty of chances left. The biggest question regarding his future is whether he will suit up in a different uniform starting next season. If he does, that could change everything about this projection. Without knowing where he is going to play for sure, it is hard to know whether James will ever be able to form a dynasty like other greats like Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant did. To be on the safe side, I will say he wins two titles. His upcoming decision this offseason will likely seal his fate. A good choice–a move to a team with the ability to bring in elite players with Lebron–could be the beginning of one of the best runs in NBA history with James at the helm.
DWIGHT HOWARD
RING PREDICTION
NBA history tells us that dominant big men usually lead dynasties. Dwight Howard took the Magic to the NBA Finals last season. At 24, he’s likely going to be a dominant force in the middle for at least the next six years. His defense and rebounding makes him hard to gameplan for, but if his offensive game could still use some work. If he ever becomes a dominant force on offense, he could match Shaquille O’ Neal’s four rings. Expect him to continue developing on offense, while continuing to dominate the boards. I have him winning two rings, but he could win more than that if all the right pieces fall into play. A lot depends on whether the Magic can continue surrounding him with talent for the next five to six years.
KEVIN DURANT
RING PREDICTION
At only 21, Kevin Durant has become the youngest player ever to capture the scoring title. Oklahoma City has went from rebuilding to the playoffs with the emergence of Durant, a gifted forward with the talent to play any position on the floor. If the Thunder can continue adding pieces, Durant could end up with a handfull of rings based on talent. His market isn’t a great one for free agents, so he might have to leave OKC to win titles. Oklahoma City is going the right direction, has a roster loaded with young talent, and has a superstar that can entice players to sign up to play with him. I will give him one championship, just because I can’t see a guy as talented as him not winning at least one.
CARMELO ANTHONY
RING PREDICTION
Anthony is one of the hardest cases to predict. The Nuggets are built for a championship now, but have not been able to get past Kobe Bryant and the Lakers. At 31, Bryant is running out of prime years left. With Carmelo Anthony at 25, the Nuggets are going to be a fringe NBA Finals team for years to come. This could be the team to beat in the West for the next few seasons, depending on how high a level aging stars in the conference can continue playing at. Will he ever get over the hump? I say he gets at least one ring.
DWAYNE WADE
RING PREDICTION
(won in 2006)
At 28, Wade is the youngest out of the group many still consider the “NBA’s new generation of stars”. He’s the first young guy in this article that I’ve broken down that actually owns a NBA Championship ring. The question here (as with all the players listed) is how many more Wade takes home? He’s considering leaving Miami and if he does his next stop will play a large role in whether he ever gets another ring. There’s only so many rings to go around while Wade is still in his prime (maybe five great years left), and this is probably Lebron and Dwight Howard’s league during that time. I believe he will finish his career with the one he has.
UAB forward Elijah Millsap is entering the NBA Draft.
The junior said he will not hire an agent, meaning he is eligible to return to school for his senior season. Chances are, that is what he will do. Millsap is probably using this as a “free” look at what NBA scouts think about him, because draft experts do not see him as a first round pick.
He set a UAB school record for double doubles, total rebounds, and free throw attempts. The Blazers were a lot better than most believed they would this season, mainly because of Millsap.
Expect him to be back in Birmingham next season, making plays for the Blazers unless he hears something I’m not expecting him to hear from NBA scouts.
Millsap is the brother of Utah Jazz player Paul Millsap.
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