LAST UPDATED: February 4, 2010 (12:16 AM)

Other Links: Daily Bracketology | Forums | NOTE: Mouse over teams for team name

RPI & SOS numbers will be updated twice a week. Commentary is also updated a few times a week.

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ACC:

LOCKS:

SHOULD BE IN:

Georgia Tech (15-5, 4-3, RPI: 26, SOS: 19): The Yellow Jackets have wins against Wake Forest, Duke, Siena, North Carolina, and Clemson. Strong computer numbers and the big wins should be enough to push Georgia Tech in the field as long as they can avoid going under .500 in conference play.

BUBBLE:

North Carolina (13-8, 2-4, RPI: 77, SOS: 23): How can North Carolina be this bad? The Tar Heels have wins over Michigan State and Ohio State to counter bad losses to Charleston and Virginia, but the the rest of the profile is pretty empty. You’d have to think, UNC needs to get to at least .500 in ACC play to get in.

Florida State (16-5, 4-3, RPI: 30, SOS: 63): The Seminoles’ RPI is great and so is a sweep of Georgia Tech, but losses to N. C. State, Maryland, and Florida probably has Florida State closer to the bubble than most believe they are.

Wake Forest (15-5, 5-3, RPI; 21, SOS: 21): Wake Forest has the best computer numbers of any ACC bubble team and only one bad loss against Miami (who they won against Wednesday in a revenge game). The Demon Deacons have won against Gonzaga, Maryland, Richmond, and North Carolina. Right now they’d be in for sure, but there’s a lot of games left to be played.

Clemson (16-6, 4-4, RPI: 35, SOS: 36): Is this the beginning of Clemson’s traditional second half slide? The Tigers lost three straight before picking up a much needed win against Maryland on Sunday night. Five of Clemson’s final nine games are at home. The best wins on the profile are Butler, North Carolina, and Maryland.

Maryland (13-6, 4-2, RPI: 52, SOS: 41): Maryland’s profile is lacking good wins (the best is against Florida State), but the computer numbers are decent. None of their losses are bad and the Terps still get Duke twice, Clemson, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech.

ON THE CUSP: Virginia Tech (16-4, 3-3, RPI: 76, SOS: 223), Virginia (14-6, 5-2, RPI: 79, SOS: 102)

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Atlantic 10:

LOCKS:

SHOULD BE IN: None

BUBBLE:

Dayton (15-6, 4-3, RPI: 43, SOS: 46): The Flyers have a victory against ACC bubbler Georgia Tech and George Mason, but nothing else to show for a #40 RPI. Three losses in five games, including two of them coming to fellow A-10 bubble teams, have the Flyers last on the pecking order right now.

Charlotte (17-5, 6-1, RPI: 34, SOS: 98): A recent five game winning streak, including victories over Temple and Richmond, have the 49ers on the right side of the bubble right now. Charlotte’s five losses are all to very good teams (Duke, Tennessee, Old Dominion, Georgia Tech, and Xavier).

Xavier (16-6, 7-1, RPI: 20, SOS: 14): Xavier has won eight of nine with three of those wins coming against Charlotte, Rhode Island, and Dayton. The one loss was against A-10 lock Temple. Outside of conference play the Musketeers have a nice win against Cincinnati.

Rhode Island (18-3, 6-2, RPI: 12, SOS: 50): No team with a RPI of 20 or above has missed the Big Dance. With a RPI of 12, Rhode Island is in great shape to get into the field. The Rams have wins over Oklahoma State, Northeastern, and Dayton. If the computer numbers stay high they will be a “should be in” soon.

Richmond (17-6, 6-2, RPI: 37, SOS: 81): The Spiders wins over Florida, Mississippi State, Missouri, and Old Dominion are really looking good right now. Saturday’s game against Temple could be a huge game in deciding how worried they are come Selection Sunday.

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Big 12:

LOCKS:

SHOULD BE IN: None

BUBBLE:

Oklahoma State (16-6, 4-4, RPI: 33, SOS: 44): The Cowboys have lost four of their last seven games after a 13-2 start to the season. Oklahoma State’s best wins are against Kansas State and Texas A&M, but other than that the “good wins” part of the resume is pretty bare.

Missouri (16-6, 4-3, RPI: 49, SOS: 69): Missouri has wins over Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Old Dominion. Games against Kansas, Texas, and Kansas State remain on the schedule as chances for big wins to get into the field.  The loss on Wednesday to Texas A&M was important because the Aggies move ahead of them in the bubble pecking order. Both are in good shape though.

Baylor (16-4, 4-3, RPI: 24, SOS: 30): Baylor’s win over Texas completely changed the bubble picture. With the win, Baylor is now in the top 25 of the RPI and has a .500 conference record. The Bears have wins against Oklahoma State, Xavier, and and South Carolina to back up the victory over the Longhorns.

Texas Tech (14-7, 2-5, RPI: 40, SOS: 20): The RPI and SOS ratings really like Texas Tech, but I’m having a hard time trying to figure out why. The Red Raiders have zero wins over my field and are in danger of falling off the bubble with another loss.

Texas A&M (16-6, 5-3, RPI: 27, SOS: 18): The Aggies have wins against Minnesota, Clemson, Missouri and Texas Tech. While the wins aren’t great (only the Clemson win is against a team in my field), Texas A&M is currently in good shape with its computer numbers.

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Big East:

LOCKS:

SHOULD BE IN:

Pittsburgh (16-6, 6-4, RPI: 22, SOS: 11): The computer numbers leave the Panthers in great shape, but four losses in five games leave them moving towards the bubble. Even with the recent losses, wins against Louiville, Syracuse, and Cincinnati have Pittsburgh as a practical lock to make the tournament.

BUBBLE:

Connecticut (13-9, 3-6, RPI: 50, SOS: 4): The Huskies have lost six of seven games (with the one win against then #1 ranked Texas) and have fallen into really bad shape. Connecticut’s resume is starting to look more and more like Georgetown’s from last year by the second. Where did the Hoyas spend their March? Playing in that other tournament.

Louisville (14-8, 5-4, RPI: 44, SOS: 5): The Cardinals win against Connecticut on Monday really helps shape the Big East bubble picture. Five losses in eight games, including a tight one to West Virginia, leave Louisville still needing a lot of wins to be safe.

Cincinnati (14-7, 5-4, RPI: 48, SOS: 28): Early season wins against Maryland and Vanderbilt are really giving the Bearcats something to hang their hat on right now. The best win for Cincy since then is against Connecticut, but the Huskies may not even make the dance.

Seton Hall (12-8, 3-6, RPI: 59, SOS: 13): Wins against Louisville, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh have Seton Hall back on the bubble in a crowded Big East. The Pirates SOS is a big helper, but the only way Seton Hall is getting in is by getting to .500 in Big East play and grabbing some big wins along the way.

Marquette (13-8, 4-5, RPI: 64, SOS: 35): The Eagles have wins over Georgetown and Connecticut, but the story of their season is going to be close losses. Marquette just missed chances to beat Villanova and West Virginia (lost the three games combined by 5 points). Now the Eagles enter the lighter part of their Big East schedule.

South Florida (15-7, 5-5, RPI: 46, SOS: 25): For the first time in its history South Florida has won four straight Big East games and finds itself on the NCAA Tournament bubble. A win against Virginia in OOC play is starting to look better, but the signature win came Wednesday against Pittsburgh.

ON THE CUSP: Notre Dame (15-7, 4-5, RPI: 70, SOS: 69)

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Big Ten:

LOCKS:

SHOULD BE IN:

Ohio State (17-6, 7-3, RPI: 32, SOS: 66): The Buckeyes won enough without Evan Turner to still be in good shape now that he’s back. If Ohio State keeps winning, it will be on the “lock” category soon. On Sunday they obliterated a Minnesota team in need of a big win.

BUBBLE:

Northwestern (14-7, 4-6, RPI: 62, SOS: 62): For those hoping the Wildcats could make their first NCAA Tournament, this may not be the year. Six losses in ten games derailed what was a promising start to the season. The Wildcats win against Purdue is enough to carry them if they can somehow get to .500 in conference play.

Illinois (15-8, 7-3, RPI: 78, SOS: 83): The Illini’s RPI is a big problem, but the bulk of Ilinois’ Big Ten schedule still remains. Six total games still remain against the current “locks/should be ins” of the conference, allowing Illinois a chance to play their way into the field.

Minnesota (13-8, 4-5, RPI: 60, SOS: 29): On Sunday Minnesota was blown off the floor by Ohio State. That’s not the kind of showing bubble teams need when the calendar begins its turn into February. Wins against Northwestern, Ohio State, and Butler look nice, but the Gophers need to start winning again (have lost 5 of 7).

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Mountain West:

LOCKS:

SHOULD BE IN: None

BUBBLE:

UNLV (17-4, 6-2, RPI: 38, SOS: 93): Right now the Rebels would be the third team in from the Mountain West. UNLV has wins against Louisville, Arizona, New Mexico, and San Diego State. A win against BYU at home in four days would likely be icing on the cake.

San Diego State (14-6, 5-3, RPI: 42, SOS: 75): The Aztecs have lost three of their last seven games, but do have wins over New Mexico and Arizona on their resume. Three games still remain against the three likely NCAA Tournament tournament teams from the Mountain West.

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Pac 10:

LOCKS: None

SHOULD BE IN: None

BUBBLE:

California (14-7, 6-3, RPI: 25, SOS: 3): The Bears have great computer numbers but are benefiting more from a down year in the Pac 10 more than anything else. The profile looks good because of games against Syracuse, Ohio State, Kansas, and New Mexico in OOC play.

Arizona (12-9, 6-3, RPI: 53, SOS: 7): Guess who is back from the dead, looking to revive its pulse for a 26th consecutive year int he NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats win against California on Sunday left them tied for the Pac 10 lead, but the rest of the resume still leaves a lot to be desired.

ON THE CUSP: Arizona State (15-7, 5-4, RPI: 87, SOS: 93)

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SEC:

LOCKS:

SHOULD BE IN:

Tennessee (16-4, 4-2, RPI: 23, SOS: 26): Wins against Kansas and Florida in the last two weeks have the Vols on the verge of clinching a spot in the “locked’ category. The only thing stopping me is Tyler Smith’s suspension and a loss to Georgia that showed just how inconsistent this team is.

BUBBLE:

Mississippi (16-6, 4-4, RPI: 39, SOS: 51): The Rebels loss to Arkansas on Sunday left a lot of doubt in my mind about Mississippi’s NCAA chances. A win against Kansas State early in the year looks great. On Tuesday the loss to Kentucky actually strengthened the Rebel’s computer numbers.

Mississippi State (16-6, 4-3, RPI: 63, SOS: 127): Before we get started on the Rebels, take a look at that SOS. Now note that they’ve lost to Rider, Arkansas, Alabama, and Western Kentucky. Against Vanderbilt a late surge came up short, leaving the Bulldogs still needing a big win.

Florida (15-6, 4-3, RPI: 54, SOS: 67): The Gators have two nice out of conference wins against Michigan State and Florida State, as well as a good one against South Carolina in SEC play, but still are too inconsistent. Florida needs to get to 10 wins in SEC play and hope that’s enough with its two big OOC victories.

South Carolina (13-8, 4-3, RPI: 61, SOS: 27): Devan Downey is trying to single handedly push the Gamecocks into the NCAA Tournament field. The win against Kentucky was important but remember this team is a Chandler Parsons buzzer beating three away from being 5-2 in SEC play and 14-7 overall.

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Mid Majors:

LOCKS:

SHOULD BE IN: None

BUBBLE:

UAB (18-4, 6-2, RPI: 28, SOS 84): The Blazers loss to UTEP was costly because it cost them the outright lead in Conference USA, but more costly was a loss at FedEx Forum against Memphis. Still, UAB’s RPI is good enough for Blazer fans to like their team’s chances of grabbing an at large.

William & Mary (14-6, 7-4, RPI: 51, SOS: 80): Nice OOC wins for the Tribe have been hidden by losses in conferences. To get an at large, you’d have to think that William & Mary has to get to at least second  in the conference. A loss to Old Dominion on Wednesday was devastating to their at large chances.

Old Dominion (18-6, 10-2, RPI: 41, SOS: 85): ODU is tied for first in the CAA after its victory against William & Mary on Wednesday night. A loss to Northeastern could be costly, while a win over Georgetown is looking great.

St. Mary’s (18-3, 6-1, RPI: 31, SOS: 101): The Gaels probbly need to defeat Gonzaga sometime this season to grab an at large. The RPI is nice for a WCC bubble team (not named Gonzaga), but the SOS could use a big jump.

Cornell (16-3, 4-0, RPI: 36, SOS: 143): There was a time when there was talk regarding a two bid Ivy League this year, but the Big Red ended that with a 36 point blowout of Harvard on Saturday.

Siena (19-4, 12-0, RPI: 45, SOS: 153): The Saints have become a team were use to being this good, but without an undefeated run through the MAAC it’s very likely Siena will need a win over Butler in the Bracketbusters to get an at large.

Tulsa (17-4, 7-1, RPI: 58, SOS: 159): Tulsa missed a chance for a big win at UAB last Tuesday, but benefited from UTEP’s win at Bartow to move into a tie for the Conference USA lead.

Louisiana Tech (18-4, 6-2, RPI: 75, SOS: 235): Ah, what a nice story La Tech is. Without a WAC regular season title, paired with at least 25 wins, I don’t see any way their in the discussion in the next few weeks.

Wichita State (19-3, 8-4, RPI: 47, SOS: 128): Wichita has a great win over all but locked Northern Iowa. On Wednesday they lost the rematch with the Panthers. The SOS could use  boost to get them in serious at large consideration.

Northeastern (15-8, 10-2, RPI: 56, SOS: 65): Northeastern is second in the CAA and is now second in the CAA. The Huskies have rebounded from an awful start to the season.

VCU (16-5, 8-4, RPI: 57, SOS: 140): To be friendly, we’ve included the Rams in the watch, but without a better SOS, a higher finish in the CAA, and some big wins they won’t be here for long.

The complete bubble breakdown:

ACC	Atlantic 10
LOCKS: SHOULD BE IN: BUBBLE:	LOCKS: SHOULD BE IN: None BUBBLE:
Big 12	Big East
LOCKS: SHOULD BE IN: None BUBBLE:	LOCKS: SHOULD BE IN: BUBBLE:
Big Ten	Mountain West
LOCKS: SHOULD BE IN: BUBBLE:	LOCKS: SHOULD BE IN: None BUBBLE:
Pac 10	SEC
LOCKS: None SHOULD BE IN: None BUBBLE:	LOCKS: SHOULD BE IN: BUBBLE:
Mid Majors
LOCKS: SHOULD BE IN: None BUBBLE: